Posts Tagged ‘meta-analyses’

Does a pound of apples equal a pound of potatoes?

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013

In January, 2013 a rather startling article in JAMA concluded that its not only okay, but actually may healthier, to be somewhat overweight and it's not bad to even be a little obese.

That conclusion took many of us by surprise and was hard to swallow. I read it and went into my hypercritical mode.

To start with almost everyone would agree that those who are really skinny may not be healthy, unless they're a marathon runner or some other kind of well-trained athlete. And, by the same token, being truly obese is bad for you.

But why should people who are overweight be healthier than those of us who are reasonably trim? And, to step things up a notch, why should being mildly fat not carry some risk?

This was a meta-analysis which an online dictionary  defines as a systematic method that takes data from a number of independent studies and integrates them using statistical analysis.

In other words, the authors weren't doing their own large prospective study (one that starts at the current time and follows a group of research subjects over a {hopefully} extended period of time) but was a project that (retrospectively) reviewed the past work of others.

The gold standard in medical research, from my reading, is to have a randomized, controlled, double-blinded, prospective study. That translates into the research subjects being allotted by a method that picks them in a non-biased fashion to some kind of treatment or another (or none) and neither the researchers or the "researchees" know what group they're in. Ideally the total number of subjects should be quite large and the study starts when they're chosen and goes on from there.

Here there wasn't a treatment and it was reasonable to look at other authors' work done in the past, but of course there are hazards in doing so. What often appears to happen, is a group of researchers say, "Let's look at problem X by seeing what other medical scientists have done. And we'll accept or not accept those previous studies by criteria we can agree upon."

These authors retrospectively examined data from 97 studies including nearly three million subjects (2.88M), but those came from a pool of over 7,000 articles and excluded, for pre-set and logical reasons, 98% of those.

In the same edition of JAMA were comments in a superb editorial piece, "Does Body Mass Index Adequately Convey a Patient's Mortality Risk," It mentioned a 1942 statistician working (as my Grandpa Sam did) for the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company said staying at the same weight you were at at age 25 meant you had a better chance for a longer life. Later on height and weight tables were compiled and a number called the body mass index could be derived using those two measurements and, in general, the CDC said, it was a reasonable estimate of how lean or chubby you were.

Normal BMI is said to be between 18.5 and 25 (I'm at 21 at present), so underweight would be represented by those with a BMI <18.5, the overweight range is 25-30, low-grade obesity from 30 to 35, grade 2 obesity from 35 to 40 and grade 3 obesity from 40 on up.

Since the origin of the concept behind BMI was European (by a Belgian polymath somewhere between 1830 and 1850), it's usually measured as the weight of a person in kilograms divided by their height in meters squared. A close American version is weight in pounds divided by height in inches squared and then multiply by 703.

So at 150 pounds and 71 inches tall (I've lost at least a half an inch over the years), my BMI calculates as 20.9. If I weighed 200 pounds, my BMI would be 27.9 and I'd be called overweight. At the most I've ever weighed (216) and with my younger height of 71.5 inches, my BMI was 29.7. That's a 66 pound difference; I thought I was fat at that weight.

Total mortality, the editorial said, has a U-shaped relationship with BMI, with considerably higher risk of death at BMI's less than 18.5 or greater than 30.

That's long been the traditional viewpoint, but the data in the January JAMA article didn't seem to agree with the latter finding. The editorial clarified matters considerably, saying the normal range can be divided in two parts with those having a BMI between 18.5 and 22 having a higher mortality rate than those who BMI is between 22 and 25.

I'd go a step further by saying there are those of us who have a relatively low BMI because we're lean and exercise a lot and others who have a similar BMI because of chronic illness or poor nutritional intake.

Lean and well-muscled

Lean with a muscular torso

I have well-muscled legs (I ride a recumbent bike for 15+ miles and 500+ calories six days a week), but I've never had strong arms and I'm small-boned. Since the beginning of 2009 when I went back on my own eating plan and really increased my exercise time, I've gone from a 38 inch waist to 33 and given away slacks and belts. If I weighed 200 pounds and was a large-boned guy with a great torso and a small waist, I think my risk factors for death would be less than if I had a big belly and weighed the same 200 pounds.

So we need to add waist measurement and probably blood pressure, blood lipids (HDL cholesterol and triglycerides) and fasting blood sugar to the BMI to get a better estimate of risk factors for dying.

That still doesn't explain why those with a BMI of 30 to 35 appear to do well. One comment is that docs have gotten considerably more aggressive in looking at and managing blood pressure, lipids and elevated blood sugars in those of their patients who are overweight or obese.

Weighing what I do now, down nearly 30 pounds since early 2009, my own physician hasn't suggested I get a fasting blood sugar or a lipid panel for several years.

I bet she would if I weighed 216 again.

 

 

 

More on salt, actually salts

Saturday, June 30th, 2012

What should we make with our CSA-supplied spinach today?

We're in the prime of our CSA delivery season; fresh vegetables started three weeks ago and fruits this week. Many of our meals consist of spinach, lettuce, beets, rhubarb, apricots & cherries, with milk and/or cheese or yogurt. We rarely, if ever, shop for any "prepared foods," always check labels for sodium content, and only eat out, other than our weekly Thai food splurge, for birthdays and other occasions. I'm firmly convinced that less sodium (often termed "table salt," but most typically found in processed foods and restaurant dishes) is better for us.

So when I started reading an article in the ACP Journal Club section of the January 2012 issues of the Annals of Internal Medicine that was titled "Review: Interventions to reduce dietary salt do not reduce mortality or morbidity," I was skeptical. The original article, published in England, was a meta-analysis, a statistical look at a group of research studies. In this case seven randomized controlled trials were lumped together, and according to the Journal Club, the conclusion was as in the article's title.

But the US and Canadian reviewers disagreed. In people with normal, borderline, or elevated blood pressure, 6 of the 7 studies showed variable results and the pooled data did not reveal statistically significant decreases in death rates or medical complications. I went to the original article and the authors actually say, "Despite collating more event data than previous systemic reviews...there is still insufficient power to exclude clinically important effects of reduced dietary salt..."

That translates, to me, as "we don't know yet what happens when millions of people lower their salt intake." The reviewers, being ultra cautious, say, "...we are unaware of compelling evidence showing that consuming less sodium in the general population is harmful."

A free-lance science writer wrote an article in Scientific American in 2011 with the title, "It's Time to End the War on Salt." She argues that the data linking increased salt intake and various diseases is not solid.

Should I believe those statistics?

Yet there are lots of studies showing a strong link between salt intake and blood pressure and others claiming a similar correlation between dietary sodium and cardiovascular disease.

One country that decided to act on these supposed connections was Finland. In the late 1970s a national-level campaign was started to include mass media education, monitoring of urinary sodium excretion and food-industry cooperation using salt substitutes. The average sodium intake was cut by nearly 30% and over the next ~24 years stoke and heart attack deaths went down by 60%. Was this cause and effect? I'm not sure, since other factors may have played a role and the initial average salt intake was quite high.

But a December, 2011, New York Times article, with the striking title, "Sodium-Saturated Diet Is a Threat for All" led me to find another kind of salt that plays a role. I found the July, 2011, Archives of Internal Medicine research report, "Sodium and Potassium Intake and Mortality Among US Adults" and realized I was on the right track with our diet.

It's not just too much sodium chloride, the kind of salt some use at their dining room tables, manufacturers add to processed foods and restaurants to their recipes to add flavor and preserve food. It's also how much potassium you eat (in fruits, juices, vegetables, fish, nuts and meat), that makes a difference. In this case, within reason and assuming you have normal kidney function, more is better.

I'm going downstairs and eat some fruit and perhaps a baked potato and yogurt, all high in potassium and relatively low in calories.